BOOK I ON THE NATURE OF WAR

　　CHAPTER1WHATISWAR?

　　1.INTRODUCTION

　　WEproposetoconsiderfirstthesingleelementsofoursubject,theneach

　　anchorpart,and,lastofall,thewhole,inallitsrelations—thereforetoadvancefromthesimpletothecomplex.Butitisnecessaryforustocommencewithaglanceatthenatureofthewhole,becauseitisparticularlynecessarythatintheconsiderationofanyofthepartstheirrelationtothewholeshouldbekeptconstantlyinview.

　　2.DEFINITION

　　WeshallnotenterintoanyoftheabstrusedefinitionsofWarusedbypublicists.Weshallkeeptotheelementofthethingitself,toaduel.Warisnothingbutaduelonanextensivescale.IfwewouldconceiveasaunitthecountlessnumberofduelswhichmakeupaWar,weshalldosobestbysupposingtoourselvestwowrestlers.Eachstrivesbyphysicalforcetocompeltheothertosubmittohiswill:eachendeavourstothrowhisadversary,andthusrenderhimincapableoffurtherresistance.

　　WARTHEREFOREISANACTOFVIOLENCEINTENDEDTOCOMPELOUROPPONENTTOFULFILOURWILL.

　　ViolencearmsitselfwiththeinventionsofArtandScienceinordertocontendagainstviolence.Self-imposedrestrictions,almostimperceptibleandhardlyworthmentioning,termedusagesofInternationalLaw,accompanyitwithoutessentiallyimpairingitspower.Violence,thatistosay,physicalforce(forthereisnomoralforcewithouttheconceptionofStatesandLaw),isthereforetheMEANS;thecompulsorysubmissionoftheenemytoourwillistheultimateobject.Inordertoattainthisobjectfully,theenemymustbedisarmed,anddisarmamentbecomesthereforetheimmediateOBJECTofhostilitiesintheory.Ittakestheplaceofthefinalobject,andputsitasideassomethingwecaneliminatefromourcalculations.

　　3.UTMOSTUSEOFFORCE

　　Now,philanthropistsmayeasilyimaginethereisaskilfulmethodofdisarmingandovercominganenemywithoutgreatbloodshed,andthatthisisthepropertendencyoftheArtofWar.Howeverplausiblethismayappear,stillitisanerrorwhichmustbeextirpated;forinsuchdangerousthingsasWar,theerrorswhichproceedfromaspiritofbenevolencearetheworst.Astheuseofphysicalpowertotheutmostextentbynomeansexcludestheco-operationoftheintelligence,itfollowsthathewhousesforceunsparingly,withoutreferencetothebloodshedinvolved,mustobtainasuperiorityifhisadversaryuseslessvigourinitsapplication.Theformerthendictatesthelawtothelatter,andbothproceedtoextremitiestowhichtheonlylimitationsarethoseimposedbytheamountofcounter-actingforceoneachside.

　　Thisisthewayinwhichthemattermustbeviewedanditistonopurpose,itisevenagainstone'sowninterest,toturnawayfromtheconsiderationoftherealnatureoftheaffairbecausethehorrorofitselementsexcitesrepugnance.

　　IftheWarsofcivilisedpeoplearelesscruelanddestructivethanthoseofsavages,thedifferencearisesfromthesocialconditionbothofStatesinthemselvesandintheirrelationstoeachother.OutofthissocialconditionanditsrelationsWararises,andbyitWarissubjectedtoconditions,iscontrolledandmodified.ButthesethingsdonotbelongtoWaritself;theyareonlygivenconditions;andtointroduceintothephilosophyofWaritselfaprincipleofmoderationwouldbeanabsurdity.

　　TwomotivesleadmentoWar:instinctivehostilityandhostileintention.InourdefinitionofWar,wehavechosenasitscharacteristicthelatteroftheseelements,becauseitisthemostgeneral.Itisimpossibletoconceivethepassionofhatredofthewildestdescription,borderingonmereinstinct,withoutcombiningwithittheideaofahostileintention.Ontheotherhand,hostileintentionsmayoftenexistwithoutbeingaccompaniedbyany,oratalleventsbyanyextreme,hostilityoffeeling.Amongstsavagesviewsemanatingfromthefeelings,amongstcivilisednationsthoseemanatingfromtheunderstanding,havethepredominance;butthisdifferencearisesfromattendantcircumstances,existinginstitutions,&c.,and,therefore,isnottobefoundnecessarilyinallcases,althoughitprevailsinthemajority.Inshort,eventhemostcivilisednationsmayburnwithpassionatehatredofeachother.

　　WemayseefromthiswhatafallacyitwouldbetorefertheWarofacivilisednationentirelytoanintelligentactonthepartoftheGovernment,andtoimagineitascontinuallyfreeingitselfmoreandmorefromallfeelingofpassioninsuchawaythatatlastthephysicalmassesofcombatantswouldnolongerberequired;inreality,theirmererelationswouldsuffice—akindofalge

　　aicaction.

　　TheorywasbeginningtodriftinthisdirectionuntilthefactsofthelastWartaughtitbetter.IfWarisanACTofforce,itbelongsnecessarilyalsotothefeelings.Ifitdoesnotoriginateinthefeelings,itREACTS,moreorless,uponthem,andtheextentofthisreactiondependsnotonthedegreeofcivilisation,butupontheimportanceanddurationoftheinterestsinvolved.

　　Therefore,ifwefindcivilisednationsdonotputtheirprisonerstodeath,donotdevastatetownsandcountries,thisisbecausetheirintelligenceexercisesgreaterinfluenceontheirmodeofcarryingonWar,andhastaughtthemmoreeffectualmeansofapplyingforcethantheserudeactsofmereinstinct.Theinventionofgunpowder,theconstantprogressofimprovementsintheconstructionoffirearms,aresufficientproofsthatthetendencytodestroytheadversarywhichliesatthebottomoftheconceptionofWarisinnowaychangedormodifiedthroughtheprogressofcivilisation.

　　Wethereforerepeatourproposition,thatWarisanactofviolencepushedtoitsutmostbounds;asonesidedictatesthelawtotheother,therearisesasortofreciprocalaction,whichlogicallymustleadtoanextreme.Thisisthefirstreciprocalaction,andthefirstextremewithwhichwemeet(FIRSTRECIPROCALACTION).

　　4.THEAIMISTODISARMTHEENEMY

　　WehavealreadysaidthattheaimofallactioninWaristodisarmtheenemy,andweshallnowshowthatthis,theoreticallyatleast,isindispensable.

　　Ifouropponentistobemadetocomplywithourwill,wemustplacehiminasituationwhichismoreoppressivetohimthanthesacrificewhichwedemand;butthedisadvantagesofthispositionmustnaturallynotbeofatransitorynature,atleastinappearance,otherwisetheenemy,insteadofyielding,willholdout,intheprospectofachangeforthebetter.EverychangeinthispositionwhichisproducedbyacontinuationoftheWarshouldthereforebeachangefortheworse.Theworstconditioninwhichabelligerentcanbeplacedisthatofbeingcompletelydisarmed.If,therefore,theenemyistobereducedtosubmissionbyanactofWar,hemusteitherbepositivelydisarmedorplacedinsuchapositionthatheisthreatenedwithit.Fromthisitfollowsthatthedisarmingoroverthrowoftheenemy,whicheverwecallit,mustalwaysbetheaimofWarfare.NowWarisalwaystheshockoftwohostilebodiesincollision,nottheactionofalivingpoweruponaninanimatemass,becauseanabsolutestateofendurancewouldnotbemakingWar;therefore,whatwehavejustsaidastotheaimofactioninWarappliestobothparties.Here,then,isanothercaseofreciprocalaction.Aslongastheenemyisnotdefeated,hemaydefeatme;thenIshallbenolongermyownmaster;hewilldictatethelawtomeasIdidtohim.Thisisthesecondreciprocalaction,andleadstoasecondextreme(SECONDRECIPROCALACTION).

　　5.UTMOSTEXERTIONOFPOWERS

　　Ifwedesiretodefeattheenemy,wemustproportionoureffortstohispowersofresistance.Thisisexpressedbytheproductoftwofactorswhichcannotbeseparated,namely,thesumofavailablemeansandthestrengthoftheWill.Thesumoftheavailablemeansmaybeestimatedinameasure,asitdepends(althoughnotentirely)uponnumbers;butthestrengthofvolitionismoredifficulttodetermine,andcanonlybeestimatedtoacertainextentbythestrengthofthemotives.Grantedwehaveobtainedinthiswayanapproximationtothestrengthofthepowertobecontendedwith,wecanthentakeofourownmeans,andeitherincreasethemsoastoobtainapreponderance,or,incasewehavenottheresourcestoeffectthis,thendoourbestbyincreasingourmeansasfaraspossible.Buttheadversarydoesthesame;therefore,thereisanewmutualenhancement,which,inpureconception,mustcreateafreshefforttowardsanextreme.Thisisthethirdcaseofreciprocalaction,andathirdextremewithwhichwemeet(THIRDRECIPROCALACTION).

　　6.MODIFICATIONINTHEREALITY

　　Thusreasoningintheabstract,themindcannotstopshortofanextreme,becauseithastodealwithanextreme,withaconflictofforceslefttothemselves,andobeyingnootherbuttheirowninnerlaws.IfweshouldseektodeducefromthepureconceptionofWaranabsolutepointfortheaimwhichweshallproposeandforthemeanswhichweshallapply,thisconstantreciprocalactionwouldinvolveusinextremes,whichwouldbenothingbutaplayofideasproducedbyanalmostinvisibletrainoflogicalsubtleties.If,adheringcloselytotheabsolute,wetrytoavoidalldifficultiesbyastrokeofthepen,andinsistwithlogicalstrictnessthatineverycasetheextrememustbetheobject,andtheutmosteffortmustbeexertedinthatdirection,suchastrokeofthepenwouldbeamerepaperlaw,notbyanymeansadaptedtotherealworld.

　　Evensupposingthisextremetensionofforceswasanabsolutewhichcouldeasilybeascertained,stillwemustadmitthatthehumanmindwouldhardlysubmititselftothiskindoflogicalchimera.Therewouldbeinmanycasesanunnecessarywasteofpower,whichwouldbeinoppositiontootherprinciplesofstatecraft;aneffortofWillwouldberequireddisproportionedtotheproposedobject,whichthereforeitwouldbeimpossibletorealise,forthehumanwilldoesnotderiveitsimpulsefromlogicalsubtleties.

　　Buteverythingtakesadifferentshapewhenwepassfromabstractionstoreality.Intheformer,everythingmustbesubjecttooptimism,andwemustimaginetheonesideaswellastheotherstrivingafterperfectionandevenattainingit.Willthisevertakeplaceinreality?Itwillif,

　　(1)Warbecomesacompletelyisolatedact,whicharisessuddenly,andisinnowayconnectedwiththeprevioushistoryofthecombatantStates.

　　(2)Ifitislimitedtoasinglesolution,ortoseveralsimultaneoussolutions.

　　(3)Ifitcontainswithinitselfthesolutionperfectandcomplete,freefromanyreactionuponit,throughacalculationbeforehandofthepoliticalsituationwhichwillfollowfromit.

　　7.WARISNEVERANISOLATEDACT

　　Withregardtothefirstpoint,neitherofthetwoopponentsisanabstractpersontotheother,notevenasregardsthatfactorinthesumofresistancewhichdoesnotdependonobjectivethings,viz.,theWill.ThisWillisnotanentirelyunknownquantity;itindicateswhatitwillbeto-morrowbywhatitistoday.Wardoesnotspringupquitesuddenly,itdoesnotspreadtothefullinamoment;eachofthetwoopponentscan,therefore,formanopinionoftheother,inagreatmeasure,fromwhatheisandwhathedoes,insteadofjudgingofhimaccordingtowhathe,strictlyspeaking,shouldbeorshoulddo.But,now,manwithhisincompleteorganisationisalwaysbelowthelineofabsoluteperfection,andthusthesedeficiencies,havinganinfluenceonbothsides,becomeamodifyingprinciple.

　　8.WARDOESNOTCONSISTOFASINGLEINSTANTANEOUSBLOW

　　Thesecondpointgivesrisetothefollowingconsiderations:—

　　IfWarendedinasinglesolution,oranumberofsimultaneousones,thennaturallyallthepreparationsforthesamewouldhaveatendencytotheextreme,foranomissioncouldnotinanywayberepaired;theutmost,then,thattheworldofrealitycouldfurnishasaguideforuswouldbethepreparationsoftheenemy,asfarastheyareknowntous;alltherestwouldfallintothedomainoftheabstract.Butiftheresultismadeupfromseveralsuccessiveacts,thennaturallythatwhichprecedeswithallitsphasesmaybetakenasameasureforthatwhichwillfollow,andinthismannertheworldofrealityagaintakestheplaceoftheabstract,andthusmodifiestheefforttowardstheextreme.

　　YeteveryWarwouldnecessarilyresolveitselfintoasinglesolution,orasumofsimultaneousresults,ifallthemeansrequiredforthestrugglewereraisedatonce,orcouldbeatonceraised;forasoneadverseresultnecessarilydiminishesthemeans,thenifallthemeanshavebeenappliedinthefirst,asecondcannotproperlybesupposed.Allhostileactswhichmightfollowwouldbelongessentiallytothefirst,andform,inrealityonlyitsduration.

　　ButwehavealreadyseenthateveninthepreparationforWartherealworldstepsintotheplaceofmereabstractconception—amaterialstandardintotheplaceofthehypothesesofanextreme:thatthereforeinthatwaybothparties,bytheinfluenceofthemutualreaction,remainbelowthelineofextremeeffort,andthereforeallforcesarenotatonce

　　oughtforward.

　　Itliesalsointhenatureoftheseforcesandtheirapplicationthattheycannotallbe

　　oughtintoactivityatthesametime.TheseforcesareTHEARMIESACTUALLYONFOOT,THECOUNTRY,withitssuperficialextentanditspopulation,ANDTHEALLIES.

　　Inpointoffact,thecountry,withitssuperficialareaandthepopulation,besidesbeingthesourceofallmilitaryforce,constitutesinitselfanintegralpartoftheefficientquantitiesinWar,providingeitherthetheatreofwarorexercisingaconsiderableinfluenceonthesame.

　　Now,itispossibleto

　　ingallthemovablemilitaryforcesofacountryintooperationatonce,butnotallfortresses,rivers,mountains,people,&c.—inshort,notthewholecountry,unlessitissosmallthatitmaybecompletelyem

　　acedbythefirstactoftheWar.Further,theco-operationofalliesdoesnotdependontheWillofthebelligerents;andfromthenatureofthepoliticalrelationsofstatestoeachother,thiscooperationisfrequentlynotaffordeduntilaftertheWarhascommenced,oritmaybeincreasedtorestorethebalanceofpower.

　　Thatthispartofthemeansofresistance,whichcannotatoncebe

　　oughtintoactivity,inmanycases,isamuchgreaterpartofthewholethanmightatfirstbesupposed,andthatitoftenrestoresthebalanceofpower,seriouslyaffectedbythegreatforceofthefirstdecision,willbemorefullyshownhereafter.HereitissufficienttoshowthatacompleteconcentrationofallavailablemeansinamomentoftimeiscontradictorytothenatureofWar.

　　Nowthis,initself,furnishesnogroundforrelaxingoureffortstoaccumulatestrengthtogainthefirstresult,becauseanunfavourableissueisalwaysadisadvantagetowhichnoonewouldpurposelyexposehimself,andalsobecausethefirstdecision,althoughnottheonlyone,stillwillhavethemoreinfluenceonsubsequentevents,thegreateritisinitself.

　　Butthepossibilityofgainingalaterresultcausesmentotakerefugeinthatexpectation,owingtotherepugnanceinthehumanmindtomakingexcessiveefforts;andthereforeforcesarenotconcentratedandmeasuresarenottakenforthefirstdecisionwiththatenergywhichwouldotherwisebeused.Whateveronebelligerentomitsfromweakness,becomestotheotherarealobjectivegroundforlimitinghisownefforts,andthusagain,throughthisreciprocalaction,extremetendenciesare

　　oughtdowntoeffortsonalimitedscale.

　　9.THERESULTINWARISNEVERABSOLUTE

　　Lastly,eventhefinaldecisionofawholeWarisnotalwaystoberegardedasabsolute.TheconqueredStateoftenseesinitonlyapassingevil,whichmayberepairedinaftertimesbymeansofpoliticalcombinations.Howmuchthismustmodifythedegreeoftension,andthevigouroftheeffortsmade,isevidentinitself.

　　10.THEPROBABILITIESOFREALLIFETAKETHEPLACEOFTHECONCEPTIONSOFTHEEXTREMEANDTHEABSOLUTE

　　Inthismanner,thewholeactofWarisremovedfromtherigorouslawofforcesexertedtotheutmost.Iftheextremeisnolongertobeapprehended,andnolongertobesoughtfor,itislefttothejudgmenttodeterminethelimitsfortheeffortstobemadeinplaceofit,andthiscanonlybedoneonthedatafurnishedbythefactsoftherealworldbytheLAWSOFPROBABILITY.Oncethebelligerentsarenolongermereconceptions,butindividualStatesandGovernments,oncetheWarisnolongeranideal,butadefinitesubstantialprocedure,thentherealitywillfurnishthedatatocomputetheunknownquantitieswhicharerequiredtobefound.

　　Fromthecharacter,themeasures,thesituationoftheadversary,andtherelationswithwhichheissurrounded,eachsidewilldrawconclusionsbythelawofprobabilityastothedesignsoftheother,andactaccordingly.

　　11.THEPOLITICALOBJECTNOWREAPPEARS

　　Herethequestionwhichwehadlaidasideforcesitselfagainintoconsideration(seeNo.2),viz.,thepoliticalobjectoftheWar.Thelawoftheextreme,theviewtodisarmtheadversary,tooverthrowhim,hashithertotoacertainextentusurpedtheplaceofthisendorobject.Justasthislawlosesitsforce,thepoliticalmustagaincomeforward.Ifthewholeconsiderationisacalculationofprobabilitybasedondefinitepersonsandrelations,thenthepoliticalobject,beingtheoriginalmotive,mustbeanessentialfactorintheproduct.Thesmallerthesacrificewedemandfromours,thesmaller,itmaybeexpected,willbethemeansofresistancewhichhewillemploy;butthesmallerhispreparation,thesmallerwilloursrequiretobe.Further,thesmallerourpoliticalobject,thelessvalueshallwesetuponit,andthemoreeasilyshallwebeinducedtogiveitupaltogether.

　　Thus,therefore,thepoliticalobject,astheoriginalmotiveoftheWar,willbethestandardfordeterminingboththeaimofthemilitaryforceandalsotheamountofefforttobemade.Thisitcannotbeinitself,butitissoinrelationtoboththebelligerentStates,becauseweareconcernedwithrealities,notwithmereabstractions.Oneandthesamepoliticalobjectmayproducetotallydifferenteffectsupondifferentpeople,orevenuponthesamepeopleatdifferenttimes;wecan,therefore,onlyadmitthepoliticalobjectasthemeasure,byconsideringitinitseffectsuponthosemasseswhichitistomove,andconsequentlythenatureofthosemassesalsocomesintoconsideration.Itiseasytoseethatthustheresultmaybeverydifferentaccordingasthesemassesareanimatedwithaspiritwhichwillinfusevigourintotheactionorotherwise.ItisquitepossibleforsuchastateoffeelingtoexistbetweentwoStatesthataverytriflingpoliticalmotiveforWarmayproduceaneffectquitedisproportionate—infact,aperfectexplosion.

　　ThisappliestotheeffortswhichthepoliticalobjectwillcallforthinthetwoStates,andtotheaimwhichthemilitaryactionshallprescribeforitself.Attimesitmayitselfbethataim,as,forexample,theconquestofaprovince.Atothertimesthepoliticalobjectitselfisnotsuitablefortheaimofmilitaryaction;thensuchaonemustbechosenaswillbeanequivalentforit,andstandinitsplaceasregardstheconclusionofpeace.Butalso,inthis,dueattentiontothepeculiarcharacteroftheStatesconcernedisalwayssupposed.Therearecircumstancesinwhichtheequivalentmustbemuchgreaterthanthepoliticalobject,inordertosecurethelatter.Thepoliticalobjectwillbesomuchthemorethestandardofaimandeffort,andhavemoreinfluenceinitself,themorethemassesareindifferent,thelessthatanymutualfeelingofhostilityprevailsinthetwoStatesfromothercauses,andthereforetherearecaseswherethepoliticalobjectalmostalonewillbedecisive.

　　Iftheaimofthemilitaryactionisanequivalentforthepoliticalobject,thatactionwillingeneraldiminishasthepoliticalobjectdiminishes,andinagreaterdegreethemorethepoliticalobjectdominates.Thusitisexplainedhow,withoutanycontradictioninitself,theremaybeWarsofalldegreesofimportanceandenergy,fromaWarofexterminationdowntothemereuseofanarmyofobservation.This,however,leadstoaquestionofanotherkindwhichwehavehereaftertodevelopandanswer.

　　12.ASUSPENSIONINTHEACTIONOFWARUNEXPLAINEDBYANYTHINGSAIDASYET

　　Howeverinsignificantthepoliticalclaimsmutuallyadvanced,howeverweakthemeansputforth,howeversmalltheaimtowhichmilitaryactionisdirected,canthisactionbesuspendedevenforamoment?Thisisaquestionwhichpenetratesdeeplyintothenatureofthesubject.

　　Everytransactionrequiresforitsaccomplishmentacertaintimewhichwecallitsduration.Thismaybelongerorshorter,accordingasthepersonactingthrowsmoreorlessdespatchintohismovements.

　　Aboutthismoreorlessweshallnottroubleourselveshere.Eachpersonactsinhisownfashion;buttheslowpersondoesnotprotractthethingbecausehewishestospendmoretimeaboutit,butbecausebyhisnatureherequiresmoretime,andifhemademorehastewouldnotdothethingsowell.Thistime,therefore,dependsonsubjectivecauses,andbelongstothelength,socalled,oftheaction.

　　IfweallownowtoeveryactioninWarthis,itslength,thenwemustassume,atfirstsightatleast,thatanyexpenditureoftimebeyondthislength,thatis,everysuspensionofhostileaction,appearsanabsurdity;withrespecttothisitmustnotbeforgottenthatwenowspeaknotoftheprogressofoneorotherofthetwoopponents,butofthegeneralprogressofthewholeactionoftheWar.

　　13.THEREISONLYONECAUSEWHICHCANSUSPENDTHEACTION,ANDTHISSEEMSTOBEONLYPOSSIBLEONONESIDEINANYCASE

　　Iftwopartieshavearmedthemselvesforstrife,thenafeelingofanimositymusthavemovedthemtoit;aslongnowastheycontinuearmed,thatis,donotcometotermsofpeace,thisfeelingmustexist;anditcanonlybe

　　oughttoastandstillbyeithersidebyonesinglemotivealone,whichis,THATHEWAITSFORAMOREFAVOURABLEMOMENTFORACTION.Now,atfirstsight,itappearsthatthismotivecanneverexistexceptononeside,becauseit,eoipso,mustbeprejudicialtotheother.Iftheonehasaninterestinacting,thentheothermusthaveaninterestinwaiting.

　　Acompleteequili

　　iumofforcescanneverproduceasuspensionofaction,forduringthissuspensionhewhohasthepositiveobject(thatis,theassailant)mustcontinueprogressing;forifweshouldimagineanequili

　　iuminthisway,thathewhohasthepositiveobject,thereforethestrongestmotive,canatthesametimeonlycommandthelessermeans,sothattheequationismadeupbytheproductofthemotiveandthepower,thenwemustsay,ifnoalterationinthisconditionofequili

　　iumistobeexpected,thetwopartiesmustmakepeace;butifanalterationistobeexpected,thenitcanonlybefavourabletooneside,andthereforetheotherhasamanifestinteresttoactwithoutdelay.Weseethattheconceptionofanequili

　　iumcannotexplainasuspensionofarms,butthatitendsinthequestionoftheEXPECTATIONOFAMOREFAVOURABLEMOMENT.

　　Letussuppose,therefore,thatoneoftwoStateshasapositiveobject,as,forinstance,theconquestofoneoftheenemy'sprovinces—whichistobeutilisedinthesettlementofpeace.Afterthisconquest,hispoliticalobjectisaccomplished,thenecessityforactionceases,andforhimapauseensues.Iftheadversaryisalsocontentedwiththissolution,hewillmakepeace;ifnot,hemustact.Now,ifwesupposethatinfourweekshewillbeinabetterconditiontoact,thenhehassufficientgroundsforputtingoffthetimeofaction.

　　ButfromthatmomentthelogicalcoursefortheenemyappearstobetoactthathemaynotgivetheconqueredpartyTHEDESIREDtime.Ofcourse,inthismodeofreasoningacompleteinsightintothestateofcircumstancesonbothsidesissupposed.

　　14.THUSACONTINUANCEOFACTIONWILLENSUEWHICHWILLADVANCETOWARDSACLIMAX

　　Ifthisun

　　okencontinuityofhostileoperationsreallyexisted,theeffectwouldbethateverythingwouldagainbedriventowardstheextreme;for,irrespectiveoftheeffectofsuchincessantactivityininflamingthefeelings,andinfusingintothewholeagreaterdegreeofpassion,agreaterelementaryforce,therewouldalsofollowfromthiscontinuanceofactionastrictercontinuity,acloserconnectionbetweencauseandeffect,andthuseverysingleactionwouldbecomeofmoreimportance,andconsequentlymorerepletewithdanger.

　　ButweknowthatthecourseofactioninWarhasseldomorneverthisun

　　okencontinuity,andthattherehavebeenmanyWarsinwhichactionoccupiedbyfarthesmallestportionoftimeemployed,thewholeoftherestbeingconsumedininaction.Itisimpossiblethatthisshouldbealwaysananomaly;suspensionofactioninWarmustthereforebepossible,thatisnocontradictioninitself.Wenowproceedtoshowhowthisis.

　　15.HERE,THEREFORE,THEPRINCIPLEOFPOLARITYIS

　　OUGHTINTOREQUISITION

　　AswehavesupposedtheinterestsofoneCommandertobealwaysantagonistictothoseoftheother,wehaveassumedatruePOLARITY.Wereserveafullerexplanationofthisforanotherchapter,merelymakingthefollowingobservationonitatpresent.

　　Theprincipleofpolarityisonlyvalidwhenitcanbeconceivedinoneandthesamething,wherethepositiveanditsoppositethenegativecompletelydestroyeachother.Inabattlebothsidesstrivetoconquer;thatistruepolarity,forthevictoryoftheonesidedestroysthatoftheother.Butwhenwespeakoftwodifferentthingswhichhaveacommonrelationexternaltothemselves,thenitisnotthethingsbuttheirrelationswhichhavethepolarity.

　　16.ATTACKANDDEFENCEARETHINGSDIFFERINGINKINDANDOFUNEQUALFORCE.POLARITYIS,THEREFORE,NOTAPPLICABLETOTHEM

　　IftherewasonlyoneformofWar,towit,theattackoftheenemy,thereforenodefence;or,inotherwords,iftheattackwasdistinguishedfromthedefencemerelybythepositivemotive,whichtheonehasandtheotherhasnot,butthemethodsofeachwerepreciselyoneandthesame:theninthissortoffighteveryadvantagegainedontheonesidewouldbeacorrespondingdisadvantageontheother,andtruepolaritywouldexist.

　　ButactioninWarisdividedintotwoforms,attackanddefence,which,asweshallhereafterexplainmoreparticularly,areverydifferentandofunequalstrength.Polaritythereforeliesinthattowhichbothbeararelation,inthedecision,butnotintheattackordefenceitself.

　　IftheoneCommanderwishesthesolutionputoff,theothermustwishtohastenit,butonlybythesameformofaction.IfitisA'sinterestnottoattackhisenemyatpresent,butfourweekshence,thenitisB'sinteresttobeattacked,notfourweekshence,butatthepresentmoment.Thisisthedirectantagonismofinterests,butitbynomeansfollowsthatitwouldbeforB'sinteresttoattackAatonce.Thatisplainlysomethingtotallydifferent.

　　17.THEEFFECTOFPOLARITYISOFTENDESTROYEDBYTHESUPERIORITYOFTHEDEFENCEOVERTHEATTACK,ANDTHUSTHESUSPENSIONOFACTIONINWARISEXPLAINED

　　Iftheformofdefenceisstrongerthanthatofoffence,asweshallhereaftershow,thequestionarises,Istheadvantageofadeferreddecisionasgreatontheonesideastheadvantageofthedefensiveformontheother?Ifitisnot,thenitcannotbyitscounter-weightover-balancethelatter,andthusinfluencetheprogressoftheactionoftheWar.Wesee,therefore,thattheimpulsiveforceexistinginthepolarityofinterestsmaybelostinthedifferencebetweenthestrengthoftheoffensiveandthedefensive,andtherebybecomeineffectual.

　　If,therefore,thatsideforwhichthepresentisfavourable,istooweaktobeabletodispensewiththeadvantageofthedefensive,hemustputupwiththeunfavourableprospectswhichthefutureholdsout;foritmaystillbebettertofightadefensivebattleintheunpromisingfuturethantoassumetheoffensiveormakepeaceatpresent.Now,beingconvincedthatthesuperiorityofthedefensive(rightlyunderstood)isverygreat,andmuchgreaterthanmayappearatfirstsight,weconceivethatthegreaternumberofthoseperiodsofinactionwhichoccurinwararethusexplainedwithoutinvolvinganycontradiction.Theweakerthemotivestoactionare,themorewillthosemotivesbeabsorbedandneutralisedbythisdifferencebetweenattackanddefence,themorefrequently,therefore,willactioninwarfarebestopped,asindeedexperienceteaches.

　　18.ASECONDGROUNDCONSISTSINTHEIMPERFECTKNOWLEDGEOFCIRCUMSTANCES

　　ButthereisstillanothercausewhichmaystopactioninWar,viz.,anincompleteviewofthesituation.EachCommandercanonlyfullyknowhisownposition;thatofhisopponentcanonlybeknowntohimbyreports,whichareuncertain;hemay,therefore,formawrongjudgmentwithrespecttoitupondataofthisdescription,and,inconsequenceofthaterror,hemaysupposethatthepoweroftakingtheinitiativerestswithhisadversarywhenitliesreallywithhimself.Thiswantofperfectinsightmightcertainlyjustasoftenoccasionanuntimelyactionasuntimelyinaction,andhenceitwouldinitselfnomorecontributetodelaythantoaccelerateactioninWar.Still,itmustalwaysberegardedasoneofthenaturalcauseswhichmay

　　ingactioninWartoastandstillwithoutinvolvingacontradiction.Butifwereflecthowmuchmoreweareinclinedandinducedtoestimatethepowerofouropponentstoohighthantoolow,becauseitliesinhumannaturetodoso,weshalladmitthatourimperfectinsightintofactsingeneralmustcontributeverymuchtodelayactioninWar,andtomodifytheapplicationoftheprinciplespendingourconduct.

　　Thepossibilityofastandstill

　　ingsintotheactionofWaranewmodification,inasmuchasitdilutesthatactionwiththeelementoftime,checkstheinfluenceorsenseofdangerinitscourse,andincreasesthemeansofreinstatingalostbalanceofforce.ThegreaterthetensionoffeelingsfromwhichtheWarsprings,thegreaterthereforetheenergywithwhichitiscarriedon,somuchtheshorterwillbetheperiodsofinaction;ontheotherhand,theweakertheprincipleofwarlikeactivity,thelongerwillbetheseperiods:forpowerfulmotivesincreasetheforceofthewill,andthis,asweknow,isalwaysafactorintheproductofforce.

　　19.FREQUENTPERIODSOFINACTIONINWARREMOVEITFURTHERFROMTHEABSOLUTE,ANDMAKEITSTILLMOREACALCULATIONOFPROBABILITIES

　　ButtheslowertheactionproceedsinWar,themorefrequentandlongertheperiodsofinaction,somuchthemoreeasilycananerrorberepaired;therefore,somuchthebolderaGeneralwillbeinhiscalculations,somuchthemorereadilywillhekeepthembelowthelineoftheabsolute,andbuildeverythinguponprobabilitiesandconjecture.Thus,accordingasthecourseoftheWarismoreorlessslow,moreorlesstimewillbeallowedforthatwhichthenatureofaconcretecaseparticularlyrequires,calculationofprobabilitybasedongivencircumstances.

　　20.THEREFORE,THEELEMENTOFCHANCEONLYISWANTINGTOMAKEOFWARAGAME,ANDINTHATELEMENTITISLEASTOFALLDEFICIENT

　　WeseefromtheforegoinghowmuchtheobjectivenatureofWarmakesitacalculationofprobabilities;nowthereisonlyonesingleelementstillwantingtomakeitagame,andthatelementitcertainlyisnotwithout:itischance.ThereisnohumanaffairwhichstandssoconstantlyandsogenerallyincloseconnectionwithchanceasWar.Buttogetherwithchance,theaccidental,andalongwithitgoodluck,occupyagreatplaceinWar.

　　21.WARISAGAMEBOTHOBJECTIVELYANDSUBJECTIVELY

　　IfwenowtakealookatthesubjectivenatureofWar,thatistosay,atthoseconditionsunderwhichitiscarriedon,itwillappeartousstillmorelikeagame.PrimarilytheelementinwhichtheoperationsofWararecarriedonisdanger;butwhichofallthemoralqualitiesisthefirstindanger?COURAGE.Nowcertainlycourageisquitecompatiblewithprudentcalculation,butstilltheyarethingsofquiteadifferentkind,essentiallydifferentqualitiesofthemind;ontheotherhand,daringrelianceongoodfortune,boldness,rashness,areonlyexpressionsofcourage,andallthesepropensitiesofthemindlookforthefortuitous(oraccidental),becauseitistheirelement.

　　Wesee,therefore,how,fromthecommencement,theabsolute,themathematicalasitiscalled,nowherefindsanysurebasisinthecalculationsintheArtofWar;andthatfromtheoutsetthereisaplayofpossibilities,probabilities,goodandbadluck,whichspreadsaboutwithallthecoarseandfinethreadsofitsweb,andmakesWarofall

　　anchesofhumanactivitythemostlikeagamblinggame.

　　22.HOWTHISACCORDSBESTWITHTHEHUMANMINDINGENERAL

　　Althoughourintellectalwaysfeelsitselfurgedtowardsclearnessandcertainty,stillourmindoftenfeelsitselfattractedbyuncertainty.Insteadofthreadingitswaywiththeunderstandingalongthenarrowpathofphilosophicalinvestigationsandlogicalconclusions,inorder,almostunconsciousofitself,toarriveinspaceswhereitfeelsitselfastranger,andwhereitseemstopartfromallwell-knownobjects,itpreferstoremainwiththeimaginationintherealmsofchanceandluck.Insteadoflivingyonderonpoornecessity,itrevelshereinthewealthofpossibilities;animatedthereby,couragethentakeswingstoitself,anddaringanddangermaketheelementintowhichitlaunchesitselfasafearlessswimmerplungesintothestream.

　　Shalltheoryleaveithere,andmoveon,self-satisfiedwithabsoluteconclusionsandrules?Thenitisofnopracticaluse.Theorymustalsotakeintoaccountthehumanelement;itmustaccordaplacetocourage,toboldness,eventorashness.TheArtofWarhastodealwithlivingandwithmoralforces,theconsequenceofwhichisthatitcanneverattaintheabsoluteandpositive.Thereisthereforeeverywhereamarginfortheaccidental,andjustasmuchinthegreatestthingsasinthesmallest.Asthereisroomforthisaccidentalontheonehand,soontheothertheremustbecourageandself-relianceinproportiontotheroomavailable.Ifthesequalitiesareforthcominginahighdegree,themarginleftmaylikewisebegreat.Courageandselfrelianceare,therefore,principlesquiteessentialtoWar;consequently,theorymustonlysetupsuchrulesasallowamplescopeforalldegreesandvarietiesofthesenecessaryandnoblestofmilitaryvirtues.Indaringtheremaystillbewisdom,andprudenceaswell,onlytheyareestimatedbyadifferentstandardofvalue.

　　23.WARISALWAYSASERIOUSMEANSFORASERIOUSOBJECT.ITSMOREPARTICULARDEFINITION

　　SuchisWar;suchtheCommanderwhoconductsit;suchthetheorywhichrulesit.ButWarisnopastime;nomerepassionforventuringandwinning;noworkofafreeenthusiasm:itisaseriousmeansforaseriousobject.Allthatappearancewhichitwearsfromthevaryinghuesoffortune,allthatitassimilatesintoitselfoftheoscillationsofpassion,ofcourage,ofimagination,ofenthusiasm,areonlyparticularpropertiesofthismeans.

　　TheWarofacommunity—ofwholeNations,andparticularlyofcivilisedNations—alwaysstartsfromapoliticalcondition,andiscalledforthbyapoliticalmotive.Itis,therefore,apoliticalact.Nowifitwasaperfect,unrestrained,andabsoluteexpressionofforce,aswehadtodeductitfromitsmereconception,thenthemomentitiscalledforthbypolicyitwouldstepintotheplaceofpolicy,andassomethingquiteindependentofitwouldsetitaside,andonlyfollowitsownlaws,justasamineatthemomentofexplosioncannotbeguidedintoanyotherdirectionthanthatwhichhasbeengiventoitbypreparatoryarrangements.Thisishowthethinghasreallybeenviewedhitherto,wheneverawantofharmonybetweenpolicyandtheconductofaWarhasledtotheoreticaldistinctionsofthekind.Butitisnotso,andtheideaisradicallyfalse.Warintherealworld,aswehavealreadyseen,isnotanextremethingwhichexpendsitselfatonesingledischarge;itistheoperationofpowerswhichdonotdevelopthemselvescompletelyinthesamemannerandinthesamemeasure,butwhichatonetimeexpandsufficientlytoovercometheresistanceopposedbyinertiaorfriction,whileatanothertheyaretooweaktoproduceaneffect;itistherefore,inacertainmeasure,apulsationofviolentforcemoreorlessvehement,consequentlymakingitsdischargesandexhaustingitspowersmoreorlessquickly—inotherwords,conductingmoreorlessquicklytotheaim,butalwayslastinglongenoughtoadmitofinfluencebeingexertedonitinitscourse,soastogiveitthisorthatdirection,inshort,tobesubjecttothewillofaguidingintelligence.,ifwereflectthatWarhasitsrootinapoliticalobject,thennaturallythisoriginalmotivewhichcalleditintoexistenceshouldalsocontinuethefirstandhighestconsiderationinitsconduct.Still,thepoliticalobjectisnodespoticlawgiveronthataccount;itmustaccommodateitselftothenatureofthemeans,andthoughchangesinthesemeansmayinvolvemodificationinthepoliticalobjective,thelatteralwaysretainsapriorrighttoconsideration.Policy,therefore,isinterwovenwiththewholeactionofWar,andmustexerciseacontinuousinfluenceuponit,asfarasthenatureoftheforcesliberatedbyitwillpermit.

　　24.WARISAMERECONTINUATIONOFPOLICYBYOTHERMEANS

　　Wesee,therefore,thatWarisnotmerelyapoliticalact,butalsoarealpoliticalinstrument,acontinuationofpoliticalcommerce,acarryingoutofthesamebyothermeans.AllbeyondthiswhichisstrictlypeculiartoWarrelatesmerelytothepeculiarnatureofthemeanswhichituses.Thatthetendenciesandviewsofpolicyshallnotbeincompatiblewiththesemeans,theArtofWaringeneralandtheCommanderineachparticularcasemaydemand,andthisclaimistrulynotatriflingone.Buthoweverpowerfullythismayreactonpoliticalviewsinparticularcases,stillitmustalwaysberegardedasonlyamodificationofthem;forthepoliticalviewistheobject,Waristhemeans,andthemeansmustalwaysincludetheobjectinourconception.xiumb.com

　　25.DIVERSITYINTHENATUREOFWARS

　　ThegreaterandthemorepowerfulthemotivesofaWar,themoreitaffectsthewholeexistenceofapeople.ThemoreviolenttheexcitementwhichprecedestheWar,bysomuchthenearerwilltheWarapproachtoitsabstractform,somuchthemorewillitbedirectedtothedestructionoftheenemy,somuchthenearerwillthemilitaryandpoliticalendscoincide,somuchthemorepurelymilitaryandlesspoliticaltheWarappearstobe;buttheweakerthemotivesandthetensions,somuchthelesswillthenaturaldirectionofthemilitaryelement—thatis,force—becoincidentwiththedirectionwhichthepoliticalelementindicates;somuchthemoremust,therefore,theWarbecomedivertedfromitsnaturaldirection,thepoliticalobjectdivergefromtheaimofanidealWar,andtheWarappeartobecomepolitical.

　　But,thatthereadermaynotformanyfalseconceptions,wemusthereobservethatbythisnaturaltendencyofWarweonlymeanthephilosophical,thestrictlylogical,andbynomeansthetendencyofforcesactuallyengagedinconflict,bywhichwouldbesupposedtobeincludedalltheemotionsandpassionsofthecombatants.Nodoubtinsomecasesthesealsomightbeexcitedtosuchadegreeastobewithdifficultyrestrainedandconfinedtothepoliticalroad;butinmostcasessuchacontradictionwillnotarise,becausebytheexistenceofsuchstrenuousexertionsagreatplaninharmonytherewithwouldbeimplied.Iftheplanisdirectedonlyuponasmallobject,thentheimpulsesoffeelingamongstthemasseswillbealsosoweakthatthesemasseswillrequiretobestimulatedratherthanrepressed.

　　26.THEYMAYALLBEREGARDEDASPOLITICALACTS

　　Returningnowtothemainsubject,althoughitistruethatinonekindofWarthepoliticalelementseemsalmosttodisappear,whilstinanotherkinditoccupiesaveryprominentplace,wemaystillaffirmthattheoneisaspoliticalastheother;forifweregardtheStatepolicyastheintelligenceofthepersonifiedState,thenamongstalltheconstellationsinthepoliticalskywhosemovementsithastocompute,thosemustbeincludedwhicharisewhenthenatureofitsrelationsimposesthenecessityofagreatWar.Itisonlyifweunderstandbypolicynotatrueappreciationofaffairsingeneral,buttheconventionalconceptionofacautious,subtle,alsodishonestcraftiness,aversefromviolence,thatthelatterkindofWarmaybelongmoretopolicythanthefirst.

　　27.INFLUENCEOFTHISVIEWONTHERIGHTUNDERSTANDINGOFMILITARYHISTORY,ANDONTHEFOUNDATIONSOFTHEORY

　　Wesee,therefore,inthefirstplace,thatunderallcircumstancesWaristoberegardednotasanindependentthing,butasapoliticalinstrument;anditisonlybytakingthispointofviewthatwecanavoidfindingourselvesinoppositiontoallmilitaryhistory.Thisistheonlymeansofunlockingthegreatbookandmakingitintelligible.Secondly,thisviewshowsushowWarsmustdifferincharacteraccordingtothenatureofthemotivesandcircumstancesfromwhichtheyproceed.

　　Now,thefirst,thegrandest,andmostdecisiveactofjudgmentwhichtheStatesmanandGeneralexercisesisrightlytounderstandinthisrespecttheWarinwhichheengages,nottotakeitforsomething,ortowishtomakeofitsomething,whichbythenatureofitsrelationsitisimpossibleforittobe.Thisis,therefore,thefirst,themostcomprehensive,ofallstrategicalquestions.WeshallenterintothismorefullyintreatingoftheplanofaWar.

　　Forthepresentwecontentourselveswithhaving

　　oughtthesubjectuptothispoint,andhavingtherebyfixedthechiefpointofviewfromwhichWaranditstheoryaretobestudied.

　　28.RESULTFORTHEORY

　　Waris,therefore,notonlychameleon-likeincharacter,becauseitchangesitscolourinsomedegreeineachparticularcase,butitisalso,asawhole,inrelationtothepredominanttendencieswhichareinit,awonderfultrinity,composedoftheoriginalviolenceofitselements,hatredandanimosity,whichmaybelookeduponasblindinstinct;oftheplayofprobabilitiesandchance,whichmakeitafreeactivityofthesoul;andofthesubordinatenatureofapoliticalinstrument,bywhichitbelongspurelytothereason.

　　Thefirstofthesethreephasesconcernsmorethepeoplethesecond,moretheGeneralandhisArmy;thethird,moretheGovernment.Thepassionswhich

　　eakforthinWarmustalreadyhavealatentexistenceinthepeoples.TherangewhichthedisplayofcourageandtalentsshallgetintherealmofprobabilitiesandofchancedependsontheparticularcharacteristicsoftheGeneralandhisArmy,butthepoliticalobjectsbelongtotheGovernmentalone.

　　Thesethreetendencies,whichappearlikesomanydifferentlaw-givers,aredeeplyrootedinthenatureofthesubject,andatthesametimevariableindegree.Atheorywhichwouldleaveanyoneofthemoutofaccount,orsetupanyarbitraryrelationbetweenthem,wouldimmediatelybecomeinvolvedinsuchacontradictionwiththereality,thatitmightberegardedasdestroyedatoncebythatalone.

　　Theproblemis,therefore,thattheoryshallkeepitselfpoisedinamannerbetweenthesethreetendencies,asbetweenthreepointsofattraction.

　　Thewayinwhichalonethisdifficultproblemcanbesolvedweshallexamineinthebookonthe"TheoryofWar."IneverycasetheconceptionofWar,asheredefined,willbethefirstrayoflightwhichshowsusthetruefoundationoftheory,andwhichfirstseparatesthegreatmassesandallowsustodistinguishthemfromoneanother. 蓝星，夏国。

　　肿瘤科病房，弥漫着医院独有的消毒水味道。病房是单人间，设施俱全，温馨舒适。

　

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　可对于孑然一身的路遥来讲，却是无人问津的等死之地。

　　他是癌症晚期，靠着意志力撑到现在，但也只是多受几天罪罢了。

　　此刻，路遥躺在病床上，怔怔望着床头柜上的水杯，想喝口水。

　　可他拼尽全力却无法让身体离开病床。剧痛和衰弱，让这原本无比简单的事情成了奢望。

　　这时，一道幸灾乐祸的声音响起：“表哥~你真是狼狈呢。连喝口水都得指望别人施舍。”

　　一位英俊的年轻男子悠闲坐在病床前，翘着二郎腿，眼睛笑成一道缝。

　　“你求求我，我给你喝口水如何？”

　　路遥面无表情，一言不发。自从失去了自理能力，一帮亲戚的嘴脸已经见多了，不差这一个。

　　男子起身，将水杯拿在手里递过来，“表哥别生气，我开玩笑的，你对我这么好，喂你口水还是能办到的。”

　　说完话，他将水杯里的水，缓缓倒在路遥苍白消瘦的脸上。

　　被呛到，路遥无力的咳嗽几声，好在少量的水流过嗓子，让他有了几丝说话的力气：

　

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　“张鑫，为什么？我从未得罪过你。你去星盟国留学，还是我资助的！”

　　张鑫将水杯放下，不紧不慢的说：“谁让你这么古板呢，只是运点感冒药罢了，又不犯法，你非得千方百计的拦着。”

　　路遥脸上闪过一丝了然之色，道：“张鑫你这垃圾，狗改不了吃屎。将感冒药运到国外提炼毒品……咳咳……”

　　张鑫理了下领带，笑道：“你别血口喷人啊，我可是国际知名企业家。这次回国，‘省招商引资局’还打电话欢迎我呢~”

　　路遥叹了口气，现在的自己什么都做不了，索性闭上眼睛不再说话，安静等待死亡的到来。

　　但张鑫却不想让眼前饱受病痛折磨、即将离世的表兄走好。他附身靠近，悄悄说道：琇書蛧

　　“表哥啊~其实呢，我这次回国主要就是见你一面，告诉你一声——你的癌，是我弄出来的~”

　　路遥陡然挣开眼，“你说什么！”

　　张鑫笑眯眯的掏出个铅盒打开，里面是件古怪的三角形饰物，仅有巴掌大小，中间是只眼睛似的图案，一看就很有年代感。

　　“眼熟吧？这是我亲手送你的，货真价实的古董。我在里面掺了点放射性物质，长期接触就会变成你现在这副鬼样子。”

　　路遥马上认出来，这是自己很喜欢的一件古物，天天摆在书桌上，时不时的把玩，没想到却是要人命的东西！

　　他伸出枯枝似的手臂，死死的抓住眼前人的胳膊！“你……”

　　“别激动~表哥，我西装很贵的。”张鑫轻松拿掉路遥的手，小心的捏起铅盒，将放射性饰物塞进他怀里。

　　“我赶飞机，得先走一步。你好好留着这个当做纪念吧，有机会再去你的坟头蹦迪~”

　　说完话，张鑫从容起身离开。临走前，还回头俏皮的眨眨眼。他原本就男生女相，此时的神态动作居然有些娇媚。

　　保镖很有眼力劲，赶紧打开病房门。同时用无线耳麦联络同事，提前发动汽车。

　　~~~~~~~~

　　路遥只能无力的瘫在床上，浑身皆是钻心剜骨般的剧痛，还有无穷悔恨、不甘。

　

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　但很快，剧痛渐渐消失，只剩麻木，路遥隐约听到过世的双亲在喊他。

　　就在路遥的身体越来越飘，即将失去意识时，胸口突然阵阵发烫，将他惊醒。

　　从怀中摸出那三角形饰物，发现这玩意变得滚烫无比，还在缓缓发光！

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